Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 53.7% vs Larkin 55.0% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 50.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 65.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 57.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Horvat
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Horvat
Larkin
Last 10: Horvat 6-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
1
Horvat
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
2
Horvat
Larkin
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Horvat
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (1,071)
55.9% (943)
-2.4%
Power Play
56.3% (272)
57.4% (244)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (76)
46.2% (106)
+5.1%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Horvat is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (888).
Horvat shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Horvat
Larkin
Home
54.2% (714)
56.0% (654)
Away
53.6% (705)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Horvat
Larkin
P1
53.5%
54.4%
P2
56.3%
55.9%
P3
53.5%
55.2%
OT
28.6%
64.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
53.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 13:23 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:13 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 16:39 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 16:18 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 12:39 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 12:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 05:50 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 05:37 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 17:50 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:29 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |