Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 53.7% vs Hertl 56.8% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 67.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 53.8%
Neutral zone
Horvat 56.2%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Horvat
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Horvat
Hertl
Last 9: Horvat 4-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Horvat
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Horvat
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (1,071)
57.0% (718)
-3.5%
Power Play
56.3% (272)
64.9% (188)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (76)
44.2% (77)
+7.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Horvat is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (888).
Horvat shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Horvat
Hertl
Home
54.2% (714)
59.2% (463)
Away
53.6% (705)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Horvat
Hertl
P1
53.5%
56.3%
P2
56.3%
55.4%
P3
53.5%
60.5%
OT
28.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
53.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 03:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 16:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |