Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Horvat wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs Hertl 57.2% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.3%
Defensive zone
Horvat 53.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Horvat
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Horvat
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Horvat
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
0
Horvat
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (682)
58.1% (823)
-2.8%
Power Play
62.2% (230)
56.2% (265)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (101)
62.9% (35)
-16.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Horvat is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (600).
Horvat shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Horvat
Hertl
Home
58.2% (469)
59.7% (561)
Away
54.0% (544)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Horvat
Hertl
P1
59.6%
51.6%
P2
53.1%
63.8%
P3
55.5%
58.6%
OT
55.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
59.6%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 01:26 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |