Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.2%). Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (53% H2H, 53 meetings). Horvat wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Hertl 54.2% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 82-81 in 163 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.4%
Defensive zone
Horvat 55.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Horvat
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
82
-
81
(163 meetings)
82
81
Horvat
Hertl
Last 10: Horvat 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
31
32
Horvat
Hertl
63 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
28
25
Horvat
Hertl
53 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
23
24
Horvat
Hertl
47 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,606)
53.8% (8,268)
+0.1%
Power Play
61.0% (2,699)
59.3% (1,975)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,494)
46.3% (806)
+0.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Horvat is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,714).
Horvat shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Horvat
Hertl
Home
56.0% (8,355)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Horvat
Hertl
P1
54.1%
53.6%
P2
54.4%
54.1%
P3
55.0%
55.3%
OT
49.6%
46.5%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
54.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 01:26 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 15:33 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:03 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 03:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 16:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:56 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:47 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 15:01 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |