Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Jenner on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Jenner wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 54.4% vs Nelson 47.5% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 57.4%
Defensive zone
Jenner 88.8%
Neutral zone
Jenner 71.2%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Jenner
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Jenner
Nelson
Last 8: Jenner 6-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
0
Jenner
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
3
1
Jenner
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Jenner
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (999)
46.9% (915)
+7.3%
Power Play
60.0% (240)
57.4% (94)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (147)
25.0% (28)
+24.7%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Jenner is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Jenner shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Jenner
Nelson
Home
56.7% (693)
48.9% (521)
Away
52.7% (693)
45.5% (516)
By Period
Jenner
Nelson
P1
57.1%
45.9%
P2
54.1%
48.0%
P3
53.0%
48.0%
OT
61.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.7%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:57 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:50 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |