Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.2% vs 52.1%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 50.8% vs Nelson 51.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 64.6%
Defensive zone
Jenner 61.0%
Neutral zone
Jenner 58.1%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Jenner
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Jenner
Nelson
Last 5: Jenner 1-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jenner
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
3
Jenner
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (163)
51.3% (1,002)
-1.0%
Power Play
52.0% (25)
58.7% (126)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
51.9% (81)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Jenner is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (89).
Jenner shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Jenner
Nelson
Home
45.7% (81)
52.5% (590)
Away
54.8% (124)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Jenner
Nelson
P1
46.6%
50.5%
P2
58.3%
54.4%
P3
50.0%
51.4%
OT
0.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
43.4%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.2%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |