Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Jenner on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 29 meetings). Jenner wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs Nelson 48.3% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Jenner leads 42-20 in 62 meetings
Offensive zone
Jenner 84.9%
Defensive zone
Jenner 92.7%
Neutral zone
Jenner 87.8%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 88.3%
88.3%
11.7%
Jenner
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
20
(62 meetings)
42
20
Jenner
Nelson
Last 10: Jenner 4-6 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
23
6
Jenner
Nelson
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
13
11
Jenner
Nelson
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
6
3
Jenner
Nelson
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (6,190)
47.9% (9,695)
+6.6%
Power Play
55.8% (1,147)
54.5% (1,132)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (998)
43.8% (783)
+4.6%
On even strength, Jenner has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Jenner is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,180).
Jenner shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Jenner
Nelson
Home
54.5% (4,051)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
53.4% (4,284)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Jenner
Nelson
P1
53.7%
48.7%
P2
53.5%
48.5%
P3
54.4%
47.7%
OT
54.5%
45.6%
Final 5 min
52.2%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
53.9%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:32 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 13:26 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:57 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:50 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 15:39 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |