Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.2% vs 50.6%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 50.1% vs Nelson 50.6% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 64.8%
Defensive zone
Jenner 50.6%
Neutral zone
Jenner 58.5%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Jenner
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Jenner
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Jenner
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (227)
50.7% (879)
-0.9%
Power Play
52.2% (23)
58.6% (162)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
43.4% (198)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Jenner is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (186).
Jenner shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Jenner
Nelson
Home
51.0% (143)
52.3% (621)
Away
49.2% (124)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Jenner
Nelson
P1
51.7%
48.4%
P2
40.5%
53.5%
P3
57.3%
50.3%
Final 5 min
52.1%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
50.2%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |