Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Jenner wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 51.9% vs Nelson 49.6% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 51.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 70.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
Jenner
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Jenner
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Jenner
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (131)
50.0% (694)
+1.9%
Power Play
54.5% (22)
56.3% (112)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (9)
42.0% (143)
+24.7%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Jenner is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (111).
Jenner shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Jenner
Nelson
Home
49.4% (83)
50.4% (472)
Away
57.0% (79)
48.6% (477)
By Period
Jenner
Nelson
P1
48.1%
47.2%
P2
50.0%
53.4%
P3
60.3%
47.8%
Final 5 min
53.3%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
48.0%▼
50.5%
53.1%
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |