Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall. Marchand wins 25.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 45.4% vs Larkin 52.1% (-18.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchand 60.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.5%
Neutral zone
Marchand 54.8%
Result
Brad Marchand favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Marchand
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Marchand
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Marchand
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
31.0% (29)
51.8% (903)
-20.8%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
56.0% (225)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
47.4% (76)
+2.6%
On even strength, Larkin has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Marchand is 25.0% vs left-shot opponents (32).
Marchand shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
Marchand
Larkin
Home
42.1% (19)
55.6% (662)
Away
27.3% (22)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Marchand
Larkin
P1
31.6%
49.9%
P2
28.6%
52.7%
P3
50.0%
53.0%
Final 5 min
16.7%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
34.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |