Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Marchand wins 36.4% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 40.3% vs Larkin 52.7% (-13.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Marchand 83.0%
Defensive zone
Marchand 71.9%
Neutral zone
Marchand 82.4%
Result
Brad Marchand favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Marchand
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Marchand
Larkin
Last 10: Marchand 3-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Marchand
Larkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
7
Marchand
Larkin
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Marchand
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
36.6% (473)
51.7% (9,019)
-15.1%
Power Play
49.3% (146)
58.5% (2,125)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (66)
50.2% (1,122)
-18.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Marchand is 36.4% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Marchand shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Marchand
Larkin
Home
39.9% (363)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
37.6% (322)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Marchand
Larkin
P1
41.3%
52.7%
P2
35.0%
53.1%
P3
39.2%
52.1%
OT
37.5%
58.4%
Final 5 min
37.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
38.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 9, 2020 | 1 | 00:06 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 8, 2019 | 3 | 12:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2019 | 2 | 10:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2019 | 2 | 03:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2019 | 1 | 12:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 3 | 06:24 | Defensive | Brad Marchand |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 17:07 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 3 | 16:06 | Defensive | Brad Marchand |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 2 | 12:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 1 | 04:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |