Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Marchand wins 40.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 47.7% vs Larkin 55.0% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchand 66.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.7%
Neutral zone
Marchand 54.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Marchand
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Marchand
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Marchand
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (36)
55.9% (943)
-11.5%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
57.4% (244)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
46.2% (106)
-3.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Marchand is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (22).
Marchand shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Marchand
Larkin
Home
46.2% (26)
56.0% (654)
Away
41.4% (29)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Marchand
Larkin
P1
44.8%
54.4%
P2
30.8%
55.9%
P3
55.6%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
30.8%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
43.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |