Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +15.8% FO% edge overall. Marchand wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 45.9% vs Larkin 54.1% (-15.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 59.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 85.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 70.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Marchand
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Marchand
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marchand
1
0
Marchand
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
29.7% (37)
53.6% (886)
-23.9%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
59.3% (317)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
48.7% (152)
-23.7%
On even strength, Larkin has a +23.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Marchand is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (46).
Marchand shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Marchand
Larkin
Home
43.3% (30)
56.6% (700)
Away
33.3% (27)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Marchand
Larkin
P1
50.0%
55.4%
P2
45.0%
54.7%
P3
13.3%
52.7%
Final 5 min
25.0%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
38.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2023 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |