Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs McDavid 53.4% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 84.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 87.5%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 57.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Tkachuk
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Tkachuk
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
McDavid
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
2
Tkachuk
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (183)
54.3% (1,002)
-8.9%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
44.8% (29)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
33.3% (15)
+66.7%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Tkachuk is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Tkachuk shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
McDavid
Home
51.1% (233)
53.6% (507)
Away
49.0% (202)
53.8% (539)
By Period
Tkachuk
McDavid
P1
42.9%
52.6%
P2
52.2%
54.1%
P3
53.7%
54.9%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
43.8%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 12:00 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:09 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |