Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs McDavid 51.8% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 92.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 84.3%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 60.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Tkachuk
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Tkachuk
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Tkachuk
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Tkachuk
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
51.5% (889)
-4.0%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
63.9% (36)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
51.2% (86)
-38.7%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +38.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Tkachuk is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Tkachuk shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
McDavid
Home
49.9% (389)
50.7% (513)
Away
46.8% (376)
53.2% (498)
By Period
Tkachuk
McDavid
P1
44.4%
52.3%
P2
51.8%
51.6%
P3
47.8%
51.7%
OT
57.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 02:17 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |