Brady Tkachuk vs Connor McDavid

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Brady Tkachuk holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 62.6% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Tkachuk 56.0% vs McDavid 47.9% (+10.9%)
Offensive zone Tkachuk 70.9%
Defensive zone McDavid 81.2%
Neutral zone McDavid 55.6%
Result Connor McDavid favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Tkachuk McDavid
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded

Situation Matchup

Situation
Tkachuk
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (139)
47.5% (650)
+9.3%
Power Play
60.6% (94)
48.6% (72)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
46.5% (43)
+53.5%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +53.5% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Tkachuk shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
McDavid
Home
50.4% (121)
50.2% (400)
Away
67.3% (113)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Tkachuk
McDavid
P1
57.1%
47.5%
P2
60.0%
48.6%
P3
58.3%
46.7%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.3%
51.3%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%
60.5%
58.5%
McDavid
50.0%
50.0%
47.6%