Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Dowd 50.7% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 92.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 87.0%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 52.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Tkachuk
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
Tkachuk
Dowd
Last 10: Tkachuk 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
7
0
Tkachuk
Dowd
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
11
Tkachuk
Dowd
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Tkachuk
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
55.2% (625)
-7.7%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
57.1% (7)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
38.2% (220)
-25.7%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Dowd
Home
49.9% (389)
53.7% (445)
Away
46.8% (376)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Tkachuk
Dowd
P1
44.4%
48.8%
P2
51.8%
49.3%
P3
47.8%
54.0%
OT
57.1%
44.4%
Final 5 min
44.3%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 07:23 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 11:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 03:38 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 13:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 06:29 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |