Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 50.7%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 18 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Dowd 50.7% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 22-9 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 85.6%
Defensive zone
Tkachuk 79.8%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 53.5%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 78.1%
78.1%
21.9%
Tkachuk
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
22
(31 meetings)
9
22
Tkachuk
Dowd
Last 10: Tkachuk 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
9
0
Tkachuk
Dowd
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
18
Tkachuk
Dowd
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Tkachuk
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
52.4% (6,009)
-3.4%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
56.1% (164)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
44.1% (1,635)
+0.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Dowd
Home
50.7% (1,428)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Tkachuk
Dowd
P1
49.4%
51.7%
P2
51.3%
50.4%
P3
49.3%
50.3%
OT
57.1%
45.9%
Final 5 min
46.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 02:20 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:15 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 07:23 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |