Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.2% vs 50.7%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 18 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 22-9 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 88.0%
Defensive zone
Tkachuk 81.6%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 61.8%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Tkachuk
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
22
(31 meetings)
9
22
Tkachuk
Dowd
Last 10: Tkachuk 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
9
0
Tkachuk
Dowd
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
18
Tkachuk
Dowd
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Tkachuk
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (1,606)
52.4% (6,097)
-3.3%
Power Play
51.6% (1,315)
56.0% (166)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
44.2% (1,646)
+0.8%
On power play, Dowd has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,240).
Tkachuk shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,213).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Dowd
Home
51.0% (1,468)
51.9% (3,947)
Away
49.4% (1,473)
49.6% (3,963)
By Period
Tkachuk
Dowd
P1
49.6%
51.6%
P2
51.3%
50.4%
P3
49.4%
50.4%
OT
55.3%
45.2%
Final 5 min
47.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
58.0%▬
58.0%
50.2%
Dowd
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 02:20 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:15 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 07:23 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |