Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Dowd 49.9% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 88.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 94.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 63.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
Tkachuk
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Tkachuk
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Tkachuk
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Tkachuk
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
52.2% (835)
-1.2%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
60.0% (10)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
44.0% (350)
+6.0%
On power play, Dowd has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tkachuk is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (129).
Tkachuk shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Dowd
Home
50.0% (140)
51.5% (619)
Away
52.2% (207)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Tkachuk
Dowd
P1
54.3%
51.7%
P2
50.0%
51.6%
P3
49.5%
47.0%
OT
33.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 02:20 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |