Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Dowd 48.3% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 89.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 95.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Tkachuk
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Tkachuk
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Tkachuk
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
49.2% (778)
-1.3%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
58.3% (12)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.0% (234)
-44.0%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +44.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Dowd
Home
56.0% (175)
46.3% (492)
Away
49.8% (205)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Tkachuk
Dowd
P1
55.0%
49.1%
P2
51.9%
48.2%
P3
47.3%
46.9%
OT
77.8%
71.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:15 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |