Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 49.3%). Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Carrick 49.5% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 92.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 90.6%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Tkachuk
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tkachuk
Carrick
Last 5: Tkachuk 2-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Tkachuk
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
49.2% (307)
-1.7%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
66.7% (6)
-16.4%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
48.2% (56)
-35.7%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Carrick is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Carrick
Home
49.9% (389)
50.3% (175)
Away
46.8% (376)
48.5% (194)
By Period
Tkachuk
Carrick
P1
44.4%
41.0%
P2
51.8%
51.2%
P3
47.8%
55.3%
Final 5 min
44.3%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:04 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:10 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |