Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Carrick 53.7% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 86.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 93.6%
Neutral zone
Carrick 64.7%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 86.1%
86.1%
13.9%
Tkachuk
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Tkachuk
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
53.8% (654)
-2.8%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
0.0% (2)
+51.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
63.9% (36)
-13.9%
On power play, Tkachuk has a +51.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tkachuk is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (129).
Tkachuk shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Carrick
Home
50.0% (140)
50.0% (328)
Away
52.2% (207)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Tkachuk
Carrick
P1
54.3%
56.7%
P2
50.0%
51.1%
P3
49.5%
54.8%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:38 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |