Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 53.4%). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Carrick 53.0% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 87.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 93.7%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 53.3%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Tkachuk
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tkachuk
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Tkachuk
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
53.9% (521)
-6.0%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
57.1% (35)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
51.5% (229)
-51.5%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +51.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Carrick
Home
56.0% (175)
52.7% (408)
Away
49.8% (205)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Tkachuk
Carrick
P1
55.0%
51.4%
P2
51.9%
56.6%
P3
47.3%
52.1%
Final 5 min
49.0%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 05:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |