Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Point wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 46.2% vs Larkin 55.0% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 61.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 64.5%
Neutral zone
Point 54.2%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Point
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Point
Larkin
Last 7: Point 3-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
3
Point
Larkin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Point
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (582)
55.9% (943)
-10.0%
Power Play
45.6% (57)
57.4% (244)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
46.2% (106)
-26.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Point is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Point shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
Point
Larkin
Home
45.8% (286)
56.0% (654)
Away
45.5% (358)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Point
Larkin
P1
45.9%
54.4%
P2
48.8%
55.9%
P3
40.6%
55.2%
OT
62.5%
64.0%
Final 5 min
40.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
45.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:34 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:01 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 05:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Brayden Point |