Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 27 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 48.8% vs Larkin 52.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 37-32 in 69 meetings
Offensive zone
Point 69.9%
Defensive zone
Point 50.1%
Neutral zone
Point 64.1%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Point
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
37
(69 meetings)
32
37
Point
Larkin
Last 10: Point 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
11
7
Point
Larkin
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
18
Point
Larkin
27 total
Neutral Zone
Even
12
12
Point
Larkin
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (6,183)
51.7% (9,019)
-3.4%
Power Play
53.9% (1,043)
58.5% (2,125)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (247)
50.2% (1,122)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Point is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,402).
Point shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Home / Away
Point
Larkin
Home
49.1% (3,733)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
48.5% (3,740)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Point
Larkin
P1
46.8%
52.7%
P2
51.4%
53.1%
P3
48.0%
52.1%
OT
52.0%
58.4%
Final 5 min
49.6%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
48.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 13:54 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 03:26 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:34 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:01 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 05:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 11:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |