Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Schenn wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs Evans 55.4% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schenn 84.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 64.8%
Neutral zone
Schenn 63.7%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
Schenn
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Schenn
Evans
Last 8: Schenn 3-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schenn
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
2
Schenn
Evans
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Schenn
Evans
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (613)
56.2% (477)
-5.0%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
70.0% (10)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
72.7% (22)
55.4% (204)
+17.3%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Schenn is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (279).
Schenn shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Home / Away
Schenn
Evans
Home
54.0% (367)
55.3% (374)
Away
53.3% (375)
57.1% (317)
By Period
Schenn
Evans
P1
48.6%
58.5%
P2
52.0%
55.7%
P3
59.0%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.6%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:18 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:17 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:40 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:20 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |