Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Schenn on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Schenn wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 49.2% vs Hertl 52.3% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schenn 56.2%
Defensive zone
Schenn 61.1%
Neutral zone
Schenn 55.1%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Schenn
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Schenn
Hertl
Last 7: Schenn 3-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
1
Schenn
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schenn
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Schenn
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (542)
51.6% (1,084)
-2.9%
Power Play
70.6% (17)
61.0% (246)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (20)
44.1% (136)
-4.1%
On power play, Schenn has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schenn is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Schenn shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Schenn
Hertl
Home
49.0% (286)
55.2% (696)
Away
49.1% (293)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Schenn
Hertl
P1
47.7%
55.4%
P2
48.7%
54.8%
P3
51.4%
48.9%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
49.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 15:42 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 07:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 17:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 10:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |