Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 52.1% vs Hertl 55.4% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 70.2%
Defensive zone
Schenn 54.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Schenn
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Schenn
Hertl
Last 9: Schenn 5-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
4
Schenn
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
1
0
Schenn
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
1
0
Schenn
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (962)
54.1% (717)
-1.9%
Power Play
51.2% (166)
61.9% (210)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (54)
58.1% (31)
-0.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schenn is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (741).
Schenn shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Schenn
Hertl
Home
51.1% (575)
58.1% (492)
Away
53.4% (607)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Schenn
Hertl
P1
51.4%
57.1%
P2
52.7%
54.0%
P3
52.7%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.6%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
52.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:27 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:19 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |