Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Schenn on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs Hertl 57.2% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Schenn leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 92.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 73.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 77.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 84.5%
15.5%
84.5%
Schenn
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Schenn
Hertl
Last 10: Schenn 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
5
1
Schenn
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
0
Schenn
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
1
Schenn
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (613)
58.1% (823)
-6.9%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
56.2% (265)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
72.7% (22)
62.9% (35)
+9.8%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schenn is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Schenn shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Schenn
Hertl
Home
54.0% (367)
59.7% (561)
Away
53.3% (375)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Schenn
Hertl
P1
48.6%
51.6%
P2
52.0%
63.8%
P3
59.0%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 12:44 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 19:59 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:32 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |