Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Schenn on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 48.6% vs Hertl 54.2% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Schenn leads 50-42 in 92 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 68.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 71.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 70.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 69.8%
30.2%
69.8%
Schenn
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
42
(92 meetings)
50
42
Schenn
Hertl
Last 10: Schenn 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
25
21
Schenn
Hertl
46 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
13
7
Schenn
Hertl
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
12
14
Schenn
Hertl
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (8,799)
53.8% (8,268)
-5.8%
Power Play
53.5% (1,033)
59.3% (1,975)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
48.5% (396)
46.3% (806)
+2.2%
On even strength, Hertl has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schenn is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,675).
Schenn shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Schenn
Hertl
Home
49.7% (5,030)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
47.4% (5,202)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Schenn
Hertl
P1
48.7%
53.6%
P2
48.6%
54.1%
P3
48.3%
55.3%
OT
50.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
49.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 12:44 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 19:59 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:32 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:27 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:19 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |