Scouting Report
Brett Howden holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Howden wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 50.4% vs McDavid 47.9% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.4%
Defensive zone
Howden 69.4%
Neutral zone
Howden 61.1%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Howden
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Howden
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
3
1
Howden
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (381)
47.5% (650)
+2.9%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
48.6% (72)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (29)
46.5% (43)
+1.8%
On power play, Howden has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Howden is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (257).
Howden shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Howden
McDavid
Home
47.7% (195)
50.2% (400)
Away
52.8% (233)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Howden
McDavid
P1
51.1%
47.5%
P2
52.6%
48.6%
P3
48.8%
46.7%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.5%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |