Scouting Report
Brett Howden holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.0% vs McDavid 47.8% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Howden leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 65.2%
Defensive zone
Howden 61.2%
Neutral zone
Howden 53.2%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Howden
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Howden
McDavid
Last 10: Howden 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
3
Howden
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
4
2
Howden
McDavid
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
3
1
Howden
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,905)
47.7% (8,358)
+1.9%
Power Play
50.5% (111)
52.0% (371)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (315)
43.4% (279)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Howden is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,152).
Howden shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
Home / Away
Howden
McDavid
Home
48.4% (1,608)
49.3% (4,570)
Away
49.6% (1,723)
46.1% (4,438)
By Period
Howden
McDavid
P1
49.5%
46.5%
P2
48.0%
48.7%
P3
49.9%
48.3%
OT
39.3%
40.9%
Final 5 min
48.6%
50.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.0%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 02:44 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |