Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 48.9%). Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Lazar 49.2% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.0%
Defensive zone
Lazar 71.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.7%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Nelson
Lazar
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Nelson
Lazar
Last 8: Nelson 2-6 Lazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Lazar
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
0
6
Nelson
Lazar
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lazar
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
51.3% (232)
-1.4%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
0.0% (1)
+52.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
37.8% (45)
-9.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lazar shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Lazar is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lazar
Home
49.8% (458)
43.5% (131)
Away
49.0% (506)
53.7% (147)
By Period
Nelson
Lazar
P1
50.1%
53.8%
P2
45.4%
50.5%
P3
52.7%
41.2%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 04:25 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 12:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |