Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 49.1%). Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Lazar 49.2% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Lazar leads 18-16 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.2%
Defensive zone
Lazar 65.8%
Neutral zone
Lazar 52.2%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Nelson
Lazar
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
18
(34 meetings)
16
18
Nelson
Lazar
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Lazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
3
Nelson
Lazar
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
11
Nelson
Lazar
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
4
Nelson
Lazar
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lazar
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.2% (2,658)
-2.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
52.3% (65)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
41.9% (415)
+1.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lazar shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Lazar is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,281).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lazar
Home
50.0% (5,845)
50.1% (1,542)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.2% (1,596)
By Period
Nelson
Lazar
P1
48.7%
48.9%
P2
48.5%
48.9%
P3
47.7%
49.5%
OT
45.6%
56.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 04:45 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 06:14 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 17:51 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:01 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 17:33 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 04:25 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 12:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 10, 2021 | 3 | 09:42 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 03:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 19:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 3 | 14:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |