Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Lazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Lazar 51.1% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 83.5%
Defensive zone
Lazar 54.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.5%
68.5%
31.5%
Nelson
Lazar
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Lazar
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Lazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
0
2
Nelson
Lazar
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
0
1
Nelson
Lazar
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lazar
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lazar
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
52.9% (242)
-6.0%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
100.0% (3)
-42.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
33.3% (27)
-8.3%
On power play, Lazar has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lazar shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Lazar is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lazar
Home
48.9% (521)
57.1% (119)
Away
45.5% (516)
47.1% (153)
By Period
Nelson
Lazar
P1
45.9%
53.1%
P2
48.0%
52.2%
P3
48.0%
48.8%
Final 5 min
45.3%
42.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 04:45 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 06:14 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 17:51 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:01 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 17:33 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |