Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 51.3%). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Lazar 51.0% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.9%
Defensive zone
Lazar 67.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Nelson
Lazar
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Lazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
0
1
Nelson
Lazar
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Lazar
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lazar
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
51.4% (356)
-0.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
62.5% (8)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
47.2% (36)
+4.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lazar shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Lazar is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lazar
Home
52.5% (590)
49.7% (163)
Away
51.7% (619)
52.3% (237)
By Period
Nelson
Lazar
P1
50.5%
46.9%
P2
54.4%
53.3%
P3
51.4%
53.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |