Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Lindholm shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Lindholm 55.4% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 69.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Nelson
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Lindholm
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
1
2
Nelson
Lindholm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
1
2
Nelson
Lindholm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
0
1
Nelson
Lindholm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
57.7% (1,124)
-10.8%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
52.9% (155)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
48.6% (259)
-23.6%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Lindholm is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,140).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lindholm
Home
48.9% (521)
55.7% (760)
Away
45.5% (516)
55.8% (778)
By Period
Nelson
Lindholm
P1
45.9%
53.7%
P2
48.0%
58.3%
P3
48.0%
55.1%
OT
33.3%
59.1%
Final 5 min
45.3%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 09:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 07:16 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 02:23 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 08:53 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |