Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lindholm shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Lindholm 53.8% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 36-31 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Nelson
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
36
(67 meetings)
31
36
Nelson
Lindholm
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
13
13
Nelson
Lindholm
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
15
16
Nelson
Lindholm
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
3
7
Nelson
Lindholm
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
53.8% (8,505)
-5.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
59.3% (1,734)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
48.1% (1,610)
-4.3%
On even strength, Lindholm has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Lindholm is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,111).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lindholm
Home
50.0% (5,845)
54.1% (5,943)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
53.6% (5,906)
By Period
Nelson
Lindholm
P1
48.7%
54.1%
P2
48.5%
54.5%
P3
47.7%
53.0%
OT
45.6%
53.6%
Final 5 min
47.8%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 02:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:56 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 09:26 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:47 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |