Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Lindholm 54.8% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 63.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.9%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Nelson
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Nelson
Lindholm
Last 9: Nelson 5-4 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lindholm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Lindholm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lindholm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
54.4% (722)
-3.7%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
62.2% (164)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
49.4% (83)
-6.0%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Lindholm is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lindholm
Home
52.3% (621)
55.8% (541)
Away
48.9% (618)
54.7% (428)
By Period
Nelson
Lindholm
P1
48.4%
54.8%
P2
53.5%
55.7%
P3
50.3%
55.6%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |