Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lindholm shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Lindholm 54.9% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Lindholm 62.1%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 63.8%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 57.1%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Nelson
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
8
(21 meetings)
13
8
Nelson
Lindholm
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Lindholm
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
4
Nelson
Lindholm
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lindholm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
54.9% (937)
-3.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
60.4% (265)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
49.4% (172)
+2.5%
On even strength, Lindholm has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Lindholm is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,115).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lindholm
Home
52.5% (590)
54.4% (688)
Away
51.7% (619)
56.1% (686)
By Period
Nelson
Lindholm
P1
50.5%
57.2%
P2
54.4%
54.3%
P3
51.4%
54.2%
OT
47.4%
54.5%
Final 5 min
57.3%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 02:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:56 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 09:26 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:47 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 03:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 15:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 13:25 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 13:21 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 03:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |