Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 50.1%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Haula 50.1% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Nelson
Haula
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Nelson
Haula
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Haula
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Haula
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Haula
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Haula
0
2
Nelson
Haula
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Haula
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
50.0% (704)
+0.7%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
55.4% (74)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
44.1% (59)
-0.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Haula shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Haula is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Nelson
Haula
Home
52.3% (621)
48.6% (426)
Away
48.9% (618)
51.6% (411)
By Period
Nelson
Haula
P1
48.4%
52.2%
P2
53.5%
51.5%
P3
50.3%
46.7%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Haula
54.0%▲
48.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Erik Haula |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 01:24 | Neutral | Erik Haula |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 04:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Erik Haula |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Erik Haula |