Brock Nelson vs Frederick Gaudreau
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudreau on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Gaudreau 48.4% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Gaudreau leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.8%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 72.1%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 54.2%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Nelson
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Nelson
Gaudreau
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Gaudreau
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
5
Nelson
Gaudreau
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Gaudreau
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
49.2% (858)
+2.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
39.0% (41)
+19.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
46.0% (198)
+5.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Gaudreau is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (819).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gaudreau
Home
52.5% (590)
47.1% (546)
Away
51.7% (619)
49.4% (551)
By Period
Nelson
Gaudreau
P1
50.5%
46.8%
P2
54.4%
46.8%
P3
51.4%
51.1%
OT
47.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 16:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:21 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:26 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:32 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |