Brock Nelson vs Frederick Gaudreau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.6%). Look for Gaudreau on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 17 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Gaudreau 48.6% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Gaudreau leads 25-24 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.3%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 65.4%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 52.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Nelson
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
25
(49 meetings)
24
25
Nelson
Gaudreau
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
14
5
Nelson
Gaudreau
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
3
14
Nelson
Gaudreau
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
6
Nelson
Gaudreau
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.7% (3,745)
-0.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
53.9% (219)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
46.6% (789)
-2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Gaudreau is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,473).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gaudreau
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.2% (2,437)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.8% (2,316)
By Period
Nelson
Gaudreau
P1
48.7%
49.7%
P2
48.5%
47.3%
P3
47.7%
49.1%
OT
45.6%
36.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 16:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:21 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:26 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |