Brock Nelson vs Frederick Gaudreau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Gaudreau 43.9% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 97.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 89.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 93.2%
93.2%
6.8%
Nelson
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Nelson
Gaudreau
Last 6: Nelson 5-1 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
Gaudreau
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
0
1
Nelson
Gaudreau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
45.0% (389)
+5.7%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
31.8% (22)
+26.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
37.6% (125)
+5.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (427).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gaudreau
Home
52.3% (621)
42.6% (277)
Away
48.9% (618)
42.9% (259)
By Period
Nelson
Gaudreau
P1
48.4%
43.8%
P2
53.5%
44.8%
P3
50.3%
39.2%
Final 5 min
50.8%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |