Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Compher on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Compher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Compher 48.9% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.4%
Defensive zone
Compher 66.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.8%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Nelson
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nelson
Compher
Last 9: Nelson 2-7 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Compher
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
1
5
Nelson
Compher
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Compher
0
2
Nelson
Compher
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
49.3% (1,149)
-2.4%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
53.9% (204)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
43.6% (312)
-18.6%
On penalty kill, Compher has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Compher is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
Nelson
Compher
Home
48.9% (521)
50.7% (872)
Away
45.5% (516)
46.8% (793)
By Period
Nelson
Compher
P1
45.9%
49.9%
P2
48.0%
47.9%
P3
48.0%
49.0%
OT
33.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
45.3%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 19:04 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 13:39 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 05:14 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 11:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 10:39 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 01:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |