Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Compher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Compher 45.6% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 87.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 82.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Nelson
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Nelson
Compher
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Compher
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
1
2
Nelson
Compher
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
Compher
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
45.8% (847)
+5.5%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
40.8% (49)
+17.9%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
41.9% (117)
+10.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Compher is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (740).
Home / Away
Nelson
Compher
Home
52.5% (590)
45.1% (519)
Away
51.7% (619)
45.1% (494)
By Period
Nelson
Compher
P1
50.5%
45.8%
P2
54.4%
46.2%
P3
51.4%
43.2%
OT
47.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 03:54 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 11:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |