Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Compher on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Compher 51.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.2%
Defensive zone
Compher 53.9%
Neutral zone
Compher 51.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Nelson
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Nelson
Compher
Last 7: Nelson 3-4 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Compher
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
0
3
Nelson
Compher
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
53.9% (757)
-3.2%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
54.8% (31)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
35.6% (90)
+7.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Compher is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Nelson
Compher
Home
52.3% (621)
52.4% (429)
Away
48.9% (618)
51.7% (449)
By Period
Nelson
Compher
P1
48.4%
56.0%
P2
53.5%
50.0%
P3
50.3%
50.6%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 01:15 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 17:38 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |