Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 47.8%). Look for Compher on defensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 23 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Compher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Compher 47.8% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Compher leads 29-24 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.9%
Defensive zone
Compher 72.0%
Neutral zone
Compher 55.5%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Nelson
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
29
(53 meetings)
24
29
Nelson
Compher
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
4
Nelson
Compher
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
3
20
Nelson
Compher
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
12
5
Nelson
Compher
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.7% (5,716)
-0.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
52.6% (682)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
41.9% (1,421)
+1.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Compher is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,626).
Home / Away
Nelson
Compher
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.1% (3,894)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
46.6% (3,925)
By Period
Nelson
Compher
P1
48.7%
49.1%
P2
48.5%
47.3%
P3
47.7%
47.4%
OT
45.6%
40.2%
Final 5 min
47.8%
46.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 01:15 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 17:38 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 03:54 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |