Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 44.8%). Look for Compher on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Compher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Compher 45.2% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.7%
Defensive zone
Compher 75.8%
Neutral zone
Compher 52.2%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Nelson
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Nelson
Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Compher
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
0
3
Nelson
Compher
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
45.5% (782)
+0.6%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
44.2% (77)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
41.7% (180)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, Compher has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Compher is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Home / Away
Nelson
Compher
Home
48.7% (419)
44.0% (484)
Away
41.3% (368)
45.4% (555)
By Period
Nelson
Compher
P1
44.6%
46.2%
P2
47.3%
44.8%
P3
43.0%
44.2%
OT
100.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 11:00 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 03:48 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |