Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Hayes 38.0% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 78.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 54.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Nelson
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Nelson
Hayes
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Hayes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
Hayes
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
3
Nelson
Hayes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
37.1% (642)
+6.8%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
32.1% (28)
+29.4%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
0.0% (11)
+41.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Nelson is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nelson shoots left. Hayes is 38.2% vs left-shot opponents (419).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hayes
Home
42.9% (406)
36.7% (354)
Away
45.8% (393)
35.8% (327)
By Period
Nelson
Hayes
P1
44.1%
33.6%
P2
47.2%
38.3%
P3
42.2%
37.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
36.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2015 | 1 | 09:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2015 | 1 | 02:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 2 | 01:20 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 2 | 04:11 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 1 | 19:08 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 1 | 16:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |