Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Hayes 43.8% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 83.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Nelson
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Hayes
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Nelson
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
42.7% (478)
+7.2%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
42.9% (98)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
45.2% (31)
-16.6%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Hayes is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (388).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hayes
Home
49.8% (458)
43.5% (232)
Away
49.0% (506)
42.4% (375)
By Period
Nelson
Hayes
P1
50.1%
40.1%
P2
45.4%
44.8%
P3
52.7%
42.4%
OT
33.3%
80.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 14:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 1 | 09:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |